Although the credit crisis is only now dominating the headlines and foreshadowing America’s economic decline, America’s economic troubles have been the subject of data models for quit sometime. In particular, Harry S. Dent’s demographic analysis in relation to the performance of the stock market predicts the U.S. economy is headed for a Great Depression in the beginning of the next decade after one last gasp in the later part of this current decade. Harry Dent postulated the stock market would reach 14,000 in 2007 (DOW hit about 14,500 in Oct 2007) in his book, “The Next Great Bubble Boom”, then decline before making a final bull run from 2008 to 2010. Dent shows a striking correlation of the stock market with the population trends since stock market and census data have been recorded indicating that 1) the past unprecedented growth in the stock market in the last century has been fueled by the massive consumer demand created by the baby boomer population explosion during the 1940’s, and 2) people tend to buy the same things as a group based on the stages in people lives. Dent’s analysis suggests that the peak buying years of the baby boomers are coming to an end. As the baby boomers age and as its numbers decrease so will the high consumption rate it once created. 
   What does this mean? Unless the underlying assumptions are shown to be incorrect (for example, the U.S. population is not as old or decreasing at the same rate suggested by the Census) then the economy is headed for a severe contraction leading to a severe and lengthy stock market decline and most importantly to high unemployment which will spread to Europe and to some great but lesser extent, Asia. To compound the problem, America’s economic depression would make her even more attractive and vulnerable to a terrorist attack. If McCain were to win, he would face a global economic crisis far more real than the current 6% unemployment rate and 40% drop in the stock market since its high last year and perhaps an increase in terrorist activity. Conservative pro-growth policies of lower corporate taxes, lower capital gain taxes, individual responsibility and to a larger extent free market principles and the Republican Party would be blamed just as Republicans are now blamed but instead for a generation. If Obama wins, his and the Democrat’s instinctive policies to raise taxes, punish business, redistribute wealth from the “rich”, increase government programs, and failure to identify our enemies would only exacerbate and deepen the downfall, but at least the blame would be his and the Democrats. It would be the Democrat’s policies that would be discredited, and perhaps finally with an Obama win, we can add the Democratic Party to the same dust bin of history as Communism.